SSI, scaling, and the flywheel nobody named: three acts of an investigation that corrected itself

A three-act investigation into Safe Superintelligence Inc. that kept overturning itself: the ‘straight shot’ thesis is elegant but rests on an unverified premise; scaling didn’t die, it fragmented into four axes SSI can’t access; and the data flywheel’s reward signal is measurably broken — which turns SSI’s ‘no product’ from fatal weakness into audit qualification. Each act’s evidence almost closed the case; each layer of depth reopened it.

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Cheap factors, four domains: a scorecard — and why 'no single factor works' isn't 'no signal'

We put interpretable, locally-computable factors from four mechanistically-different domains — software-defect prediction, paper acceptance, AI-text detection, and a world-model physics proxy — on one shared per-factor scorecard. Predictive power has a domain-dependent ceiling, the factors don’t transfer across domains, and a single-factor reading nearly had us call an industrial benchmark a ‘collapse’ when the signal was just multivariate.

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Does a multi-agent panel beat a single LLM at evolutionary code search? (We tested it. No.)

We replaced the single-LLM mutation step of an AlphaEvolve-style evolve loop (OpenEvolve) with a proposer→critic→aggregator panel and tested it rigorously across three problems. It never won — equal on easy optimization, significantly worse on hard optimization (p=0.01), and on correctness-gated ARC it cracked nothing a single call couldn’t. A clean negative result, with the baseline/ablation harness that makes it trustworthy.

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Kill the tail, not the cores: profiling the verifier under RL-with-verifiers

As RL-with-verifiers scales, the Lean verifier is both the reward source and the throughput bottleneck — a CPU/scheduling problem almost nobody benchmarks on commodity, on-prem hardware. We profiled it: on an 8-core box, ~4.5% of proofs run away and eat most of the single-thread wall, and a tuned per-proof deadline beats adding cores. The honest-measurer story (including the claim we had to retract) is the point.

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When the Government Pulls a Model: The Fable 5 / Mythos 5 Export-Control Suspension

On June 12, 2026, a US government directive forced Anthropic to abruptly disable Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers. A careful, source-verified account of what actually happened — separating the confirmed facts from Anthropic’s characterization, and from the jailbreak-research claims that are not yet independently established.

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